Four scenarios for the global economy after Covid-19

In this fast-moving environment, we need to think in scenarios, rather than pretending to know how the economy will evolve over the next 1 ½ years.

We’ve developed four scenarios of how the virus, the lockdown measures and consequently the different economies could evolve. Needless to say, even these scenarios cannot try to fully predict reality, but we hope they can provide a benchmark for both the extremes and the middle-ground. In each case, we’ve laid out some possible health factors that may be driving the scenarios – although we’d emphasise these are not meant to be interpreted as forecasts.